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[摄影] Safety in numbers 安全过剩

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发表于 2009-8-28 19:43:25 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
丹麦稳健的公共财政,低通胀水平和稳定的汇率将轻松通过欧元区”准入考试”。如果瑞典有意加入,它也能达标。其它国家则很难在短期内达到标准。而欧元门槛也不太可能降低。正如现在欧元区外围国家可能看到的优越性,成员国也从危机中学到一课,那就是欧元俱乐部越不排外,规则越宽松,欧元的魅力也就越黯淡。



这话有些言过其实。对于是否加入欧元区,英国民意和政界尚无转变迹象。但是金融危机的教训使得尚待加入的国家也不敢轻易言弃。波罗的海三国长期以来一直渴望加入欧元区,但是不能达到低通胀率的准入标准。欧元区准入标准之一包括预算赤字低于GDP的3%,在明确自己将不会达到这一标准之后,匈牙利放弃了加入计划。据说目前匈牙利正加倍努力及筹划,准备将匈牙利福林与欧元挂钩。而在ECB为了稳定兹罗提而向波兰提供了100亿欧元(125亿美元)的信贷额度之后,波兰对于加入欧元区的冷淡态度也开始有所升温。



在情况最糟的时候,投资者也不曾从四大全球货币–美元、欧元、日元、人民币中撤资。持有英镑和瑞士法郎是否明智一度遭到质疑(目前仍存质疑),这两种货币在全球外汇储备中所占份额甚小。在某种程度上来说,英国和瑞士是放大版的冰岛和爱尔兰,但是却没有爱尔兰的救生艇–作为一个巨大且流动性丰富的货币区的一员。这两个国家都有负有外汇债务的庞大银行业。









The advantages of euro membership-and the perils to small European countries of being outside-were plain when the crisis was most severe. Last autumn capital drained from currencies that investors saw as risky. That included the paper of countries, such as Iceland, with bloated financial industries, as well as some Warhammer Online Gold eastern European states with current-account deficits, heavy public borrowing or (as in Hungary) a dangerous mix of both.



Leading figures in the European Commission have not been shy to play up the role of the euro as a haven. The commission’s president, José Manuel Barroso, said on French radio that “some British politicians have Cheap Warhammer Online Gold  already told me: ‘If we had the euro, we would have been better off.’” Mr Barroso also claimed Britain was “closer than ever before” to joining the euro.












这些国家备受货币危机折磨,而犯有类似错误的欧元区成员国则免受其苦。欧盟官员迅速指出如果冰岛仍然维持本国货币,其银行存款和债务担保似将落入俗套–投资者可能会对其银行业占GDP比重感到惊恐。成为庞大俱乐部的一员,大大降低了这种货币挤对的可能性(虽然爱尔兰成为欧元区成员的原因之一是它首先成为了一个重要的金融中心)。拥有庞大的银行业和巨额公共债务的比利时同样因其成员国的身份而受益匪浅。如果不是因为欧元,西班牙将为了替其世界第二大的经常项目赤字融资而痛苦不堪。






With its sound public finances, low inflation and stable exchange rate, Denmark would sail through the euro’s entrance exam. Sweden could make the cut too, if it was minded to. But the rest would be hard pushed to join soon. It is unlikely that the rules for entry will be relaxed. Just as euro outsiders may now see advantages in being part of a global currency, insiders may take a different lesson from the crisis: that a less exclusive euro club, with laxer rules, would dim the currency’s allure.






Denmark was forced to raise interest rates in October to keep its currency peg with the euro intact. After two votes against joining the euro, the government is mulling a third referendum. Polls suggest that this time the Danes would vote in favour. Even the warhammer online gold sceptical Czechs seem less doubtful about the merits of membership of the currency club.






欧盟委员会(European Commission)的领袖人物向来不怯于夸大欧元作为避风港的作用。欧委会主席若泽·曼努埃尔·巴罗佐(José Manuel Barroso)曾在法国电台中说道,”有些英国政界人士已经告诉我说:‘如果我们已经加入欧元区,我们现在的境况也会好一点。’”巴罗佐先生同时还称,英国”比以往任何时候都要接近”加入欧元区。



丹麦被迫于10月提高利率以稳定其货币对欧元汇率。在两次投票反对加入欧元之后,政府正在酝酿第三轮全民公投。民意调查显示这次丹麦人将投赞成票。即使是惯于怀疑的捷克人似乎也减少了对这一货币俱乐部成员身份优越性的怀疑。








Euro-area countries with similar faults have been spared the currency crisis that plagued others. Eurocrats are quick to point out that Ireland’s guarantee of bank deposits and debt would seem threadbare if it still cheap Warhammer Online Gold managed its own currency: investors might have taken fright at the scale of the banking sector compared with GDP. Being part of a big club has made a currency run far less likely (though Ireland’s membership of the euro is one reason it became a large financial centre in the first place). Belgium, with its big banks and huge public debt, has benefited from being an insider too. Spain would have struggled to fund its current-account deficit, the world’s second-largest, outside the Warhammer Gold euro.







That is an overstatement. There are few signs yet that public or political opinion in Britain has shifted towards signing up to the euro. But the warhammer gold  lessons of the crisis have not been lost on many other EU countries that have yet to join. The three Baltic countries have long been keen to adopt the euro, but have fallen foul of the low-inflation criterion for entry. Hungary abandoned its attempt to join when it became clear it would not meet the public-finance criteria for joining, which include a budget deficit below 3% of GDP. It is now said to be redoubling its entry efforts and plans to peg the forint to the warhammer online gold euro in preparation. Poland’s chilly attitude towards euro membership began to thaw after a euro10 billion ($12.5 billion) credit line was cheap warhammer gold offered by the ECB to help stabilise the zloty.






At the worst point, investors ran from all but four big global currencies: the dollar, the euro, the yen and the yuan. Doubts were even raised (and remain) about the wisdom of holding the British pound and the Swiss franc, which each account for a small share of global foreign-exchange reserves. For some, Britain and Switzerland are Iceland or Ireland writ large, but without buy Warhammer Online Gold Ireland’s lifeboat-its membership of a large and liquid currency pool. Both countries have big banking industries with foreign-currency debts.



经济危机最严重时期,欧元成员国的优势和欧元区以外的欧洲小国的危险处境对比非常明显。去年秋季,资本从投资者们视为有风险的货币中撤出,包括金融业膨胀的冰岛以及一些有经常项目赤字、高额政府负债或两者兼而有之(如匈牙利)的东欧国家的货币。




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