一些业界的专业分析家对E3的展望
一些业界的专业分析家对E3的展望
在E3大展即将开幕的前夕，GameSpot询问了一些专业的分析家们对今年E3的一些看法和展望。下面是摘要的问答：
GameSpot: 你觉得微软会在这次E3的新闻发布会上发布Xbox Next的机会有多大？微软今年在加强自己在软硬件市场上的地位上还需要做些什么？
Michael Pachter, Wedbush Morgan Securities：我基本很确定微软会在2005年发布Xbox Next。但我不敢肯定他们会不会想在E3发布。如果我是他们，我会在那个时候宣布来抢走Sony的风头，所以我猜他们会那么做。对于微软来说，Xbox Next成功的关键将会是软件支持。我觉得他们实在太过于关注于制造一台和PC很相似的机器，并且做出了让这两者的开发过程很接近的战略决定，以便让PC游戏开发者很容易开发Xbox Next游戏或将PC游戏移植到它上面去。尽管这在长期是一个不错的决定，在短期内却是灾难性的。因为Xbox Next的设计将会和现在的Xbox有很大的不同，所以Xbox Next不太可能会有向下兼容性。这意味着它在一开始就要面临很大的困难——谁会买一台没法玩他们现有的Xbox游戏的Xbox Next呢？我想微软觉得Xbox Next有点像从黑胶唱片到CD的升级；但我觉得这更像是一台只能播放HDTV广播的HDTV电视。没人会买这样一台电视，除非所有的电视节目都是HDTV的。这意味着Xbox Next的成功将会更加依赖于软件的支持。如果微软把Xbox Next的编程搞得更困难或更昂贵，那么可能在2005年晚些时候都不会看到任何Xbox Next的游戏。如果如此的话，那么在今年的E3发布将会是一个很糟的主意。
James Lin，The Simba Group：可能性很低。百分之十。我很怀疑微软会不会在E3的新闻发布会上展示Xbox Next。现在时间还很早，而且现在关于下一代主机的谣传也很多。所以现在，Sony，微软和任天堂可以随便说些什么。太早了……微软需要和第三方出版商联系，确定他们有和微软合作的强烈意愿——我说的不是把PS2游戏移植到Xbox上，或者在下一代中，把PS3的游戏移植到Xbox Next上。我说的是主机独占性，即使是短时间的独占，比如一个第三方游戏首先出现在Xbox Next上，然后几周或者几个月后才在PS3上推出。我觉得微软会继续推行消费电子产品/继承产品的概念。毕竟，Sony看起来也会在PS3的产品定位上向同样的方向前进，虽然也许Sony不会很明显的强调。
Colin Sebastian，SoundView Technology Group：我不认为微软计划在今年展示出下一代的Xbox，但它可能会发布出更多的关于它的下一代技术的细节，包括XNA开发平台。我还觉得微软肯定会继续宣传推进Xbox Live，也许EA会宣布将会在今年晚些时候的一些游戏上支持这项服务。微软同样可以把E3当作一个宣传几个Xbox独占大作游戏的的好机会，包括Activision的Doom 3和THQ的Full Spectrum Warrior。
Schelley Olhava，IDC：我不期望会在微软的发布会上看到下一代的Xbox。我相信焦点会集中在游戏软件和Xbox Live上。对于微软来说，这次E3最大的事情是Halo 2。Halo 2在去年就很风光了，而且对它的期待和兴奋还在一直增长。
P.J.McNealy，American Technology Research：Xbox Next的硬件展示？零。
GameSpot：PSP很显然会是Sony的展示上的一个重头戏。你觉得Sony还会拿出什么东西来？
Colin Sebastian：在这次的E3上，我相信PS2的降价仍然是个可能性。特别是考虑到消费者对最近的Xbox降价和Halo捆绑销售的积极反应。谈到未来的发展和下一代平台，我不期望在明年之前会有很多进一步的消息或细节。尽管Sony可能会为了吸引一些眼球而放出一些消息来。
Michael Pachter：我想大概是PS2的降价。所以硬件方面就是就是PSP作为中心，加上PS2的降价和更多的PSX的细节。大概不会谈到PS3。我想PSP将会是一台娱乐设备而不仅仅是一台游戏设备，所以功能将会很重要。别期待软件方面会有什么大的惊喜，除非Eye Toy方面有些什么消息发布。
P.J.McNealy：硬件；除了现在的一些东西，大概不会有什么别的。游戏演示？绝对有的。
James Lin：大概是PS2降级到149美元，并且重新强调PS2仍然会很强劲。Sony会继续展示Eye Toy，也许还有PSX，并且向消费者推行“数字整合”的概念。
Schelley Olhava：我想Sony会宣布北美的PS2降价。我猜大概有一半对一半的机会，它让我们窥一眼（仅仅是一瞥）新主机。
GameSpot：如果要你建议Sony，那么在今年的E3上，Sony应该突出什么作为主要的信息呢？
Colin Sebastian：作为一个遥遥领先的市场领导者，Sony没有什么作很大动作的动机，但它应该说明一些在未来几年保持或增加市场份额的战略细节，特别是下一代Xbox可能在市场上击败PS3的情况下。除了一个有竞争性的价格策略，Sony的信息还可能包括怎样用PSP的独特功能起到一个杠杆的作用，以及一些PS2的周边产品。
Michael Pachter：Sony的主要信息应该是关于它现在已经有的硬件市场基础，以及第三方开发为PS2市场开发游戏的投入。
James Lin：关于PS2，继续做他们已经在做的事情：基本上，“我们（PS2）所向无敌。”在PS3上，没有很具体的东西。现在还很早。不过明年的E3就不一样了。在PSP上，正确的定位。我觉得PSP的一个潜在的陷阱就是Sony对它的定位不合适。当然，它有很多功能。不过，消费者很容易会迷糊。而且，PSP的定价也很重要。
GameSpot：任天堂已经说了，它会在他们的发布会上展示DS。你觉得反响会是积极的还是消极的？
Schelley Olhava：像大家一样，我也在等着看DS到底会是什么样子。玩起来会怎么样？内容会是什么样？价格如何？目前来说，无论是关于DS的热情还是失望都还是猜测。
Michael Pachter：我还是不太理解DS。不明白为什么我会需要两个屏幕。他们给我们看的都会是些积极的东西，除非DS真的很差劲。
P.J.McNealy：我觉得DS会受到不错的回应。并且会激起更多的猜测，如果它的北美发售日期还是今年年底假期的话。
Colin Sebastian：任天堂最初宣布DS的时候，怀疑的声音很多。不过现在看起来它已经有了一些积极的反映，特别是在游戏出版商中间。事实上，EA最近宣布了它希望出版DS游戏的意愿。尽管我觉得DS会受到积极的回应，不过也有可能聚光灯会集中在Sony的PSP上。
James Lin：死硬的任天堂迷会爱它的。其余的人会比较矛盾。
GameSpot：2004对任天堂的命运将会是很关键的一年。财经专家和分析家们中间对他们的策略是怎么看的？
P.J.McNealy：我们关注的是任天堂在硬件方面上的计划。DS在这个假期的发售是不是确定的？下一代GameCube怎么样了？
James Lin：任天堂应该回答一个在过去几年像滚雪球一样不断变大的一个问题——那就是，那些6-14岁玩家的不断长大，他们现在更多的会喜欢玩Hitman或GTA而不是Mario Kart。而且我觉得这个现象还在不断的发展。每个有一个小孩子或者侄子侄女的人都会注意到，在过去几年里他们的口味是在慢慢变得“更年长”了。任天堂应该使它的产品更加平衡和多样化，来使他们的产品对年长一些的玩家和年幼的玩家都有吸引力。
Colin Sebastian：尽管任天堂出版了一些业内的最优秀的游戏，我觉得它应该澄清一下相对于强大的竞争对手它的主机硬件计划的价值所在。我还觉得对于第三方在这个主机转型期对GameCube支持的程度上，还有一些值得担心的问题。还有对于下一代主机，第三方会有多大的支持。还有，我觉得任天堂在目前PSP的强大竞争压力下，需要强调一些GameBoy的优势和特点。
Michael Pachter：我想大家都想看到的是，任天堂增加一些更加成熟的游戏，以完善它的产品线。我想把Final Fantasy: Crystal Chronicles打上任天堂游戏的牌子是个不错的主意。他们还可能会宣布和一些日本开发商的合作，来加强他们的产品线，而且这会受到欢迎。
Schelley Olhava：2003年对任天堂的命运也是关键的一年。我希望看到任天堂的一些更加清晰的战略：他们是谁？他们要往哪里去？他们会怎么到达那里？他们有没有足够的耐力长期留在主机市场中？他们该怎么和PSP竞争？我还期待一些新的和吸引人的游戏。
GameSpot：在任天堂，Sony和微软中，哪家公司能从E3中获益最多，为什么？哪家公司损失会最大？
Michael Pachter：我觉得任天堂获益最大，微软损失最大。Sony则没什么问题。我想任天堂作的或说的一切都会是积极的，而微软说的或作的一切则会引起更多的疑惑。现在微软在改善自己缺乏的高质量独占内容上压力非常大。我想他们会公布得到一个大工作室（BioWare？），不过一个游戏不能让情况好很多。他们需要的是数量，而这仅靠他们自己是做不来的。他们好像不太情愿吸收第三方来让他们开发Xbox游戏，所以在E3上他们可能会令人失望。我能期待的一个正面消息就是EA Sports宣布对Xbox Live的支持。
P.J.McNealy：在主机方面，任天堂在去年的降价之后，似乎势头已经有所减缓。而微软在最近的降价之后势头不错。Sony的PS2的硬件销售似乎在美国正在减缓，所以他们在E3上发布的信息将会十分关键。
James Lin：这是个不赚不赔的生意。微软和任天堂都会有他们自己的近期的定位方面的挑战，因为他们都在继续努力赶上Sony。Sony处在最好的位置上，而且它被任天堂或微软抢去风头的危险也不大。Sony只需要在这一轮“打出标准杆”就行了，而另外两个主机生产商则需要“在其余的洞打出小鸟球”——这对Sony来说是个很好的位置。
Schelley Olhava：每个公司都有他们需要克服的的一些挑战。Sony需要更多的展示出PSP——告诉我们更多的细节，展示给我们产品，展示给我们内容。微软需要继续集中在关于内容的信息上。任天堂需要展示一个清晰的战略，最好能有比一年前更好的内容。
Colin Sebastian：从宣传的角度上来看，我觉得Sony有可能会有最大的收益，因为Xbox最近在市场上的势头很好，而PS2的销售很一般。此外，对于PSP的回应可能会很好。另一方面，如果PSP抢走了风头的话，那么任天堂的处境可能会更困难。
GameSpot：看一下所有的E3的参展者，你能不能选出特别需要一个突出的E3的两个出版商——那些特别需要一些关注和拿出一些东西的出版商？你能解释一下你的选择么？
Colin Sebastian：基本上，我相信即将到来的主机更新的时期，对那些比较小的出版商来说将会是非常有挑战性的。因为他们缺乏那些较大的出版商所拥有的较广的产品线和经济实力。结果就是，我相信对于那些较小的出版商而言，展示出一些有吸引力的和高质量的内容是非常重要的。
James Lin：我觉得THQ和Eidos需要一个突出的E3。THQ，在软件上跟任天堂的原因有点相像。他们需要扩展自己的产品线，向很强的低年龄的产品线中加入一些更吸引更年长玩家的游戏。Eidos，因为我相信他们是一个中等规模的出版商，并且他们有相当多的游戏资源和品牌，可以更进一步的利用。我觉得他们还是没有充分发挥他们的品牌价值。
Michael Pachter：Take-Two需要显示他们除了GTA之外还能做一个别的游戏（他们不会的）。THQ需要显示他们可以开发原创内容（他们会的）。
GameSpot：你们察觉到了有什么令人惊讶的消息发布的迹象么？会来自那个公司？
Colin Sebastian：我不期待今年会有什么惊天动地的消息，不过我觉得有几个公司会在背后藏了一些惊喜。
Michael Pachter：这个“惊喜”大概会是EA和微软在Xbox Live上的合作。
P. J. McNealy：当然。每年都有惊喜，至少，可以期待从微软会有一个。
James Lin：我经常想Eidos的品牌对EA的品牌来说会是一个很好的补充，不过，每年的E3上，大家都期待着能有合并，而且最近几年我们没看到有什么真的动作。我不会过于激动的。
Schelley Olhava：如果我知道，我就去拉斯维加斯下注了。事实上，这很难预测，而这也是惊喜的好处：谁也不知道。
GameSpot：你觉得这次的E3最大的一个消息会是什么？
Schelley Olhava：大事会是PSP和任何一个下一代主机的消息。
P. J. McNealy：手持游戏市场和2004年的游戏看起来会有多么棒。
Colin Sebastian：我想PSP会受到很多的媒体的关注。
Michael Pachter：最大的新闻会是Xbox Next会在2005年发布。明年最大的新闻会是Xbox Next将会推迟到2006！
James Lin：主机在线游戏和PC在线游戏。他们的时代快来了。
GameSpot：当周三上午大门打开的时候，你会先去那个展位？为什么？
Schelley Olhava：我想我会先进Sony的展位去看PSP。它真的很吸引人。或者，如果任天堂宣布了新的大金刚，我会去那里，因为我是个platformer迷。
Colin Sebastian：Sony展位——去玩PSP。
James Lin：EA。那里总是最棒的展位。每个人都想去看看最新的Madden Football游戏。
Michael Pachter：我会去EA展位，因为我很懒而它就在最前面。不过总是要去看看他们的东西的，所以我大概会第一个去那里。说实话，我对Majesco的展位感兴趣得多——想去看看GBA卡带上的电视，看看音质如何。我对Infinium Labs的展位也很感兴趣——想去看看那个机器到底怎么样。
Nintendo DS Software Fact Sheet
More than 100 developers have lined up to provide software for Nintendo DS. With all of that software in different stages of development, Nintendo offers an impressive array of games, tech demos and videos to showcase how this hand-held wonder will revolutionize how people play games. From the touch screen to wireless capabilities, the functions on display represent just a few of the many ways that Nintendo DS will write the future of video games. Game information is subject to change.
E3 2004 Nintendo Software
The following games are in development, and offer a glimpse into the future that Nintendo DS will build. Each game represents just a fraction of the new ways to play. Many other games, besides those shown on the E3 show floor, also are under development for Nintendo DS.
Metroid Prime®: Hunters: This amazing first-person battle game uses wireless technology to connect up to four players simultaneously (in the E3 demo version). Each player gets a Metroid® suit of a different color, and then tries to destroy the three opponents. Touch the stylus to the bottom screen to rotate the camera, aim and fire, or to transform into a Morph Ball. The game features the same artwork, sound, graphics, architecture and ambience found in the huge hit Metroid® Prime.
Super Mario 64x4: The landscape and the characters all look familiar. This is the opening castle area of Super Mario 64™, only with a few DS twists thrown in. Up to four players can link up using the wireless capabilities. Players move familiar characters like Mario™, Luigi, Yoshi® and Wario™ around the 3-D landscape, exploring and looking for stars. While one screen shows the player’s character position, the other provides an overall map of the area. Touch a spot on the screen to pop the camera over to another player’s position, or to take a close-up look at the castle.
PictoChat: Up to 16 players (two in the E3 demo version) can use the wireless functions to link together and exchange instant messages or drawings. The bottom screen shows a standard keyboard, while instant messages from other users appear in the top screen. Players can type text messages using the keyboard, use the stylus to send messages in their own handwriting or simply draw and transmit a picture. If another user sends a picture, the recipient can modify it and send it back. Play a game of wireless virtual hangman or send covert messages to other users.
– more –
WarioWare, Inc. DS: One screen isn’t big enough to contain Wario’s greed and ego. He appears on the top screen and drops boxes to the bottom one, where they open an assortment of wild mini-games. Use the stylus and touch screen to drag a net and catch some fish, or to cut a rope to drop a cage around a duck. Players might have to erase or draw pictures, or slice at food that gets thrown at them. Finish as many mini-games in 35 seconds as possible. The game features the same good humor and fast pace that are hallmarks of the WarioWare franchise.
E3 2004 Nintendo Tech Demos
Think of tech demos as a glimpse into what the future might hold. These short examples allow players to interact with their games in ways they never have before. Whether the touch-screen control helps navigate a submarine through treacherous waters or turns the Nintendo DS into a beat box, players get an inkling of what is possible. Nintendo is exhibiting software at E3 that makes use of the stylus and touch screen, just to show how easily and naturally DS games can be played. Players can enjoy them to their hearts’ content.
Balloon Trip: A stork drops Baby Mario, and he falls through the sky. A touch of the screen creates clouds that maneuver him toward gold coins and away from enemies. This demonstrates how game designers could make games that let players create their own environments. Design a house for virtual characters. Or put obstacles in the way of opponents in a multiplayer game.
Carving: Pick a block of wood, steel or even a watermelon to spin on the lathe and carve away. Listen as the enhanced sound reacts to the different surfaces. Use the fine-point stylus for precision cuts, then rotate the object and see what is created. Imagine using tools like this to dig for treasure or make custom pieces for a virtual chessboard.
Mario’s Face: Grab hold of Mario’s nose and give it a stretch. Distort his ears, or steal Wario’s cap. Rotate the head or tap a button to switch it from cartoon shading to regular 3-D. Image manipulation like this has never been possible in hand-held games. Future games could employ pliable tools or characters, or let users customize characters to their own likenesses.
DS Pikachu: This gorgeous demo highlights the versatility of Nintendo DS by showcasing brilliant colors and switching the true 3-D view from screen to screen. Players use the stylus and touch screen intuitively to interact with Pikachu in a variety of different activities. Players can touch and pull Pikachu’s cheek directly, draw Pikachu posed or rub to shave off a scratch card.
Special Effects: This demo has three parts. In the first, press and slide the different dots to create trails of water, smoke, fire or any number of effects. In the second, transform the Nintendo DS into a beat box. Each square on the screen creates a different sound, while launching new fireworks-like effects on the other screen. Mix and match to get the right combo of light and sound. In the third part, sliding the boxes around one screen changes the wild geometric image on the other. These effects can all be applied to games in a virtually infinite number of ways.
– more –
Submarine: One screen shows the position of a sub in the water, while the other puts players at the helm. Tap and slide the controls to dive, pitch, and increase speed or fire torpedoes. Avoid depth charges, enemy subs and underwater boulders that block the sub from completing its mission. This demo clearly illustrates how the dual screens work together to give players views of the action they have never had before. Now just think how this two-perspective technology could enhance sports games, first-person shooters, racing games and more.
Table Hockey: The game is simple: Just hit the puck into the opponent’s goal. But notice how the puck reacts, depending on whether the stylus slides it quickly or slowly in different directions. And think about the wireless capabilities for games like this.
E3 2004 Video Demos
Nintendo has many games in development for Nintendo DS, including the following, which will be shown only on video at E3:
Mario Kart™ DS
Animal Crossing™ DS
NEW Super Mario Bros. ®
Nintendogs
E3 2004 Third-Party Publisher Demos
The following represent a sampling of initial projects by third parties on display at E3:
(Bandai Co., Ltd.) MOBILE SUIT GUNDAM SEED: The game starts with the top screen showing a view of outer space. On the bottom screen, players choose one of three giant flying robots to battle the enemy. The game then switches to show a radarscope up top and the battle on the bottom. Use a tap of the stylus to lock onto the enemy circles. Once all three are locked, players select a weapon to destroy them. The game then transforms into a series of stylized anime movie clips as the robot fires at the enemies.
(Hudson Soft Co., Ltd.) BOMBERMAN: Classic Bomberman action comes to DS, now with quick and easy touch-screen control using the stylus. The game starts with the player vigorously rubbing the screen to compete for power-ups. In the battle round, the player maneuvers around a maze while competing in frantic Bomberman competition, trying to bomb others while avoiding incoming attacks. If a ghost appears in the upper screen and haunts the player, the player cannot move until the ghost has been scratched off using the touch screen.
(Konami Corporation) Yu-Gi-Oh! ™: Nightmare Troubadour: Players tap the screen to deal, draw and flip cards. The top screen plays out the action in full 3-D. Summon monsters and enter classic Yu-Gi-Oh! battles as players try to keep their life points from fading away. The game offers a “detail” feature that lets players zoom in and get more info about their cards. It’s classic Yu-Gi-Oh! fun for fans of the game.
– more –
(Namco Limited) Pac-Pix: Draw Pac-Man to eat up the Ghosts on the screen. Pac-Man moves in whatever direction he is facing, but players can use the stylus and touch screen to change his direction. Draw a wall in front of Pac-Man and he will turn 90 degrees.
(Namco Limited) Pac’n Roll: Pac-Man comes alive in a full 3-D environment filled with Pac-Dots and Ghosts. Use the touch screen to maneuver him up ramps and around walls, while being careful not to fall into gullies. The faster players move their fingers across the screen, the faster Pac-Man moves.
(Sega Corporation) Sonic E3 Demo: A two-part game that starts with a demo of Sonic. Players can tap the bottom screen to switch between different camera angles as Sonic zips through one of his vibrantly colored classic environments. In the second part of the game, users run their fingers back and forth on the touch screen to make Sonic run faster and faster as he collects coins. Rubbing the top of the touch screen makes Sonic jump to get coins from up high.
(Square Enix Co., Ltd.) Egg Monster Heroes: In the first segment, players control a general and his troops. Flip them from behind to make them charge the opponents. Next, players enter into the “Egg Monster Battle,” where players can touch their monsters’ bodies to choose an attack method while aiming at opposing monsters’ weak parks.
Additional Third-Party Publisher Software
In addition to the games listed above, software companies from around the world are developing titles for Nintendo DS. Below is a sampling of what is to come:
(Activision): Spider-Man™ 2
(Atari): title TBD
(Bandai Co., Ltd.): ONE PIECE, along with several other titles in development
(Banpresto Co., Ltd.): DRAGONBALL Z
(Capcom Co., Ltd.): games from the Mega Man Battle Network series, the Viewtiful Joe™ series and the Gyakuten Saiban series
(Electronic Arts): Need for Speed™
(FromSoftware, Inc.): several titles in development
(Hudson Soft Co., Ltd.): several titles in development
(Koei Co., Ltd.): Dynasty Warriors®
(Konami Corporation): FROGGER® 2005, along with a few other titles in development
(Majesco): title TBD
– more –
(Namco Limited): a new Mr. Driller and a new role-playing game
(Sega Corporation): Project Rub
(Square Enix Co., Ltd.): a new FINAL FANTASY: CRYSTAL CHRONICLE™ series and a new DRAGON QUEST MONSTERS™ series
(Tecmo, Ltd.): Monster Rancher® and another title developed by Team Ninja
(THQ): SpongeBob SquarePants™
(Ubisoft): a Rayman® title
(Vivendi): title TBD
DS has Square and Team Ninja! |
楼主: miyoo
|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|Nw壬天堂世界
( 京ICP备05022083号-1 京公网安备11010202001397号 )
楼主
显身卡
